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【ECON20151208】

宏观经济学研讨会

（总第181期）

【时间】2015年5月13日（周三）12：15－13：45

【地点】明商0202教室

【主讲】黄源  韦祎  中国人民大学经济学院

【主题】Learning and Monetary Policy Shifts (written by Frank Schorfheide, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005)

【摘要】This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model in which monetary policy follows a nominal interest rate rule that is subject to regime switches in the target inflation rate. Two specifications are considered: agents know the current state of monetary policy (full information) and agents use Bayesian updating to infer the policy regime (learning). First, our policy regime estimates are consistent with the view that policy was marked by a shift to a high-inflation regime in the early 1970s which ended with Volcker’s stabilization policy. Second, while Bayesian posterior odds favor the full-information version of the model, the fall of interest rates, actual and expected inflation in the early 1980s is better captured by the delayed response of the learning specification. Third, monetary policy shocks of up to two standard deviations essentially do not trigger the Bayesian learning mechanism.

【主持】陈彦斌 教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。

联系人：郭豫媚    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com

资料下载：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html

更多讲座信息请访问：econ.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn

经济学院

中国经济改革与发展研究院