关键字：

【ECON20161215】

宏观经济学研讨会

（总第210期）

【时间】2016年10月19日（周三）12：15－13：45

【地点】明商0302教室

【主讲】韩少华 中国人民大学汉青经济与金融高级研究院

【主题】Economic Growth and Convergence Applied Specially to China (R. Barro, NBER Working Papers, 2016)

【摘要】From the perspective of conditional convergence, China’s GDP growth rate since 1990 has been surprisingly high. However, China cannot deviate forever from the global historical experience, and the per capita growth rate is likely to fall soon from around 8% per year to a range of 3 4%. The cross-country dispersion of the log of per capita GDP shows no trend since 1870 for 25 countries with long-term data. This group excludes emerging-market countries such as China and India. For 34 countries with data since 1896, there is clear evidence of declining dispersion starting around 1980. This pattern reflects especially the incorporation of China and India into the world market economy.

【主持】陈彦斌 教授