关键字：

【ECON20181202】

宏观经济学研讨会

（总第237期）

【时间】2018年3月21日（周三）12：15－13：45

【地点】明商0202教室

【主讲】郭豫媚 中央财经大学金融学院讲师

【主题】Rethinking the Power of Forward Guidance：Lessons from Japan（Mark Gertler, NBER Working Paper, 2017）

【摘要】In the spring of 2013 the Bank of Japan introduced a state-of-the-art monetary policy which included among other things inflation targeting and aggressive use of forward guidance. In contrast to the predictions of conventional macroeconomic theory, these policies have had only very limited success in reflating the economy. I argue that the disconnect between the Japanese experience and existing theory can be traced to the forward guidance puzzle (FGP). As recent literature suggests, the essence of the FGP is that existing models predict implausibly strong effects of expected future interest rate changes on the economy with the strength of the effect increasing with the expected horizon of the interest rate change. Accordingly, in this lecture I sketch a model meant to capture the challenge of reflation in Japan. As in recent literature I attempt to mute the power of forward guidance by stepping outside of rational expectations. In particular I introduce a hybrid adaptive/rational expectations belief mechanism. Most relevant to the Japanese experience is that individuals have adaptive expectations about trend inflation, which is consistent with the evidence. As Kuroda (2016) emphasizes, for an economy without a history of inflation being anchored by a target, individuals need direct evidence that the central bank is capable of moving inflation to target.

【主持】陈彦斌 教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。

联系人：刘哲希    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com

资料下载：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html

更多讲座信息请访问：econ.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn。

中国经济改革与发展研究院