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【ECON20151201】

宏观经济学研讨会

（总第174期）

【时间】2015年3月18日（周三）12：15－13：45

【地点】明商0202教室

【主讲】郭豫媚  中国人民大学经济学院

【主题】Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance (written by Jeffrey R. Campbell, Charles L. Evans, Jonas D. M. Fisher, Alejandro Justiniano, Charles W. Calomiris and Michael Woodford, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2012)

【摘要】A large output gap accompanied by stable inflation close to its target calls for further monetary accommodation, but the zero lower bound on interest rates has robbed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the usual tool for its provision. We examine how forward guidance can substitute for lower rates at the zero bound. We empirically characterize the responses of asset prices and private macroeconomic forecasts to FOMC forward guidance, both before and since the recent financial crisis. Our results show that the FOMC has extensive experience successfully telegraphing its intended adjustments to evolving conditions, so communication difficulties do not present an insurmountable barrier to Odyssean forward guidance. Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we investigate how pairing such guidance with bright-line rules for launching rate increases can mitigate risks to the Federal Reserve’s price stability mandate.

【主持】陈彦斌 教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。

联系人：郭豫媚    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com

资料下载：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html

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