关键字：

【ECON20171212】

宏观经济学研讨会

（总第227期）

【时间】2017年9月27日（周三）12：15－13：45

【地点】明商0202教室

【主讲】刘哲希 中国人民大学经济学院

【主题】Escaping the Great Recession（F. Bianchi & L. Melosi, American Economic Review, 2017）

【点评】刘凯  中国人民大学经济学院副教授

【摘要】We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized accounts for the lack of deflation in the US economy at the zero lower bound. We first estimate a Markov-switching VAR to highlight that a zero-lower-bound regime captures most of the comovements during the Great Recession: a deep recession, no deflation, and large fiscal imbalances. We then show that a micro-founded model that features policy uncertainty accounts for these stylized facts. Finally, we highlight that policy uncertainty arises at the zero lower bound because of a trade-off between mitigating the recession and preserving long-run macroeconomic stability.

【主持】陈彦斌 教授

 人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算极模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。

 联系人：刘哲希    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com

 资料下载：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html

 更多讲座信息请访问：econ.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn。

 

 

中国人民大学经济学院