关键字：

【ECON20161220】

宏观经济学研讨会

（总第215期）

【时间】2016年11月23日（周三）12：15－13：45

【地点】明商0302教室

【主讲】黄源 中国人民大学经济学院

【主题】Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? (M. García-Schmidt & M. Woodford, Working Paper, 2015)

【摘要】We illustrate a pitfall that can result from the common practice of assessing alternative monetary policies purely by considering the perfect foresight equilibria (PFE) consistent with the proposed rule. In a standard New Keynesian model, such analysis may seem to support the “Neo-Fisherian” proposition according to which low nominal interest rates can cause inflation to be lower. We propose instead an explicit cognitive process by which agents may form their expectations of future endogenous variables. Under some circumstances, a PFE can arise as a limiting case of our more general concept of reflective equilibrium, when the process of reflection is pursued sufficiently far. But we show that an announced intention to fix the nominal interest rate for a long enough period of time creates a situation in which reflective equilibrium need not resemble any PFE.

【主持】陈彦斌 教授